Article

NPD: Fast Casual only growth segment during down economy

February 7, 2012 by Valerie Killifer — Editor, FastCasual.com

According to The NPD Group, fast casual is the only restaurant segment continuing to grow throughout the current economic time, which has motivated chains in other restaurant segments to renovate, upgrade and enhance menu selections to compete with fast casual chains.

“Manyfast casual concepts were positioned as a fresh, made-to-order alternative to traditional fast food options, and consumers responded positively,” said Bonnie Riggs, restaurant industry analyst at NPD and author of "Fast Casual: A Growing Market." “Although some fast casual concepts faltered, consumers responded positively to the concepts that offered a new fast food dining experience. The segment benefited from fast food consumers trading up and full service consumers trading down.”

Although still relatively underdeveloped, major fast casual chain units increased by a double-digit rate over the last three years, according to NPD’s Recount, a bi-annual census of restaurant unit counts.

The unit counts are as follows:

Fast Casual:

2007 - 11,013 units (11% growth)
2008 - 12,108 units (10% growth)
2009 - 12,801 units (6% growth)
2010 - 13,161 units (4% growth)
2011 - 13,643 units (7% growth)

During that same five-year period, unit counts among quick-service restaurants hovered between 1 percent growth and 2 percent declines. Unit counts at midscale restaurants decreased between 1 percent and 4 percent during the period. Meanwhile, unit counts at casual dining chains peaked at a 2 percent increase in 2008, followed by declines of 3 percent and 2 percent in subsequent years.

The report finds that even with this fast casual unit growth, consumer demand outpaced the rate of unit expansion, reflecting higher levels of consumer satisfaction with the fast casual experience.

Among 60.67 visits to restaurants across all categories, fast casual restaurants received 4 percent of traffic share, at 2.35 billion. Quick-service restaurants received 61 percent of market share while midscale restaurants and casual-dining chains received 10 percent and 11 percent, respectively.

Riggs said that QSRs have taken heed of fast casual’s success and have started to offer more premium products, healthier options, and are upgrading interiors with a more upscale and modern look. For example, McDonald's is in the middle of a $1 billion-plus remodeling effort that should be completed at its 14,000 U.S. units in 2015. Wendy's and Burger King are also reimaging their restaurants to include "lounge-like" features such as flatscreen TVs, Wi-Fi and fireplaces.

Taco Bell just launched a Cantina Bell menu, with creations by Celebrity Chef Lorena Garcia, that may better position the chain to compete with Chipotle and Qdoba.

Additionally, plenty of QSR chains – from Wendy's to Carl's Jr. – have upgraded their burgers to compete with fast casual's "better burger" brands such as Smashburger and Five Guys.

“Fast casual concepts are in an excellent position for growth relative to the overall industry,” Riggs said.“However,the same growth opportunities are available to any restaurant operator able to innovate, provide value for money, and not just keep up but surpass competitors.”