Article

Commentary: Predicting fast casual's major contenders

New chains specializing in Mexican, Asian or the better burger concept could be the industry's next leaders.

September 18, 2011

By Tom Smith,Food IQ executive chef

Earlier in the year, research giant, TECHNOMIC, released its list of Fastest Growing Chains for 2010, and it's been a popular topic of discussion ever since. Let's look back to help us look forward and spot some chains that are growing now and into 2012.

Of the chains on TECHNOMIC's list, seven of 10 were fast-casual concepts which shouldn't be a shock since that segment has not only survived the economic downturn, but flourished. The ability to offer consumers customizable items featuring high-quality ingredients at an affordable price is the hallmark of fast-casuals and has made us rethink the term "value".

Among these top fast-causal chains, certain cuisine categories seem to rise to the top. Bakery-cafes once ruled this segment, but now Mexican, upscale burgers and Asian are leading the fast-casual craze. The foods featured at these restaurants are generally easy to produce with limited service, smaller and less-skilled crews. But as with all well-established brands, there are always up-and-comers vying for the spotlight. So who will take the lead in the Mexican, Asian and burger categories?

Mexican

Chipotle and Qdoba have been the giants in the Mexican fast-casual segment; their operational systems and economic model setting the example for many fast-casual upstarts. As well entrenched as they are in the category, there is a rising chain that has them in their cross hairs. FREEBIRDS World Burrito, a 50-unit chain based out of southern California (with most units in Texas) is bringing an energetic and slightly rebellious vibe to burritos and tacos. Customization, an aforementioned fast-casual attribute, is truly the culture here with a list of 20-plus "freebies" to go along with flavored tortillas, a choice of four proteins including fried-tortilla-crusted fish.

It's easy to offer a few salsas, some beans and lettuce, but FREEBIRDS brings excitement with its unique and expansive "freebies" choices—three different bean selections, Bad *SS BBQ and habanera sauces, roasted garlic and roasted limes just to mention few. The sizes are customizable as well with a FREEBIRD size for normal appetites, a HYBRID size for those less hungry, and a seven-pound MONSTER size for crazy hungry customers (or those who just like to share). With its wide array of ingredients, portions sizes and an attitude (or maybe it's the pot brownies, yep that's right) that has attracted more than 90,000 young millennial Facebook fans; keep an eye out for FREEBIRDS World Burrito.

Burgers

Over the last few years, the classic American hamburger has been elevated, smashed, customized and topped with everything but the kitchen sink. Offering high-quality ingredients and a "taste that brings you back," Freddy's Frozen Custard & Steakburgers could be the next burger chain challenging the likes of Smashburger, Mooyah and Fatburger. Tripling its number of units since 2007 to 53 in total (mostly in lower Midwestern states), Freddy's divides its menu equally between its namesake—frozen custard and steakburgers.

This chain has the story and décor to evoke nostalgic days of simple, thin made-to-order burgers nestled between butter-toasted buns and crisp fresh veggies. It's the little things that make the difference at Freddy's including real sliced bananas for their current sweet promotion, the Chocolate Banana Concrete, toasted New England style hot rolls and the crispy edges the burgers get when smashed-grilled to order. Baby boomers and kids alike can enjoy Freddy's Frozen Custard & Steakburgers, which could be the key to its continual growth.

Asian

The Asian concept that may be next on the forefront hasn't even opened its doors yet. I am referring to Chipotle founder Steve Ells's soon-to-be-open ShopHouse Southeast Asian Kitchen. The highly-anticipated fast-casual concept slated to open in the DuPont Circle area of D.C. is said to follow Chipotle's ordering format and sustainable practices based upon flavors from Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam. The menu will be more vegetable-centric than Chipotle, and with the flavors of Southeast Asia, should provide highly colorful, spicy and healthy combinations.

The understanding that Asian food isn't just fried rice, egg rolls and thick heavy sauces on fried chicken is broadening, and a more educated urban consumer is looking for more. While many of the current Asian fast-casual concepts concentrate on traditional Chinese dishes, ShopHouse Southeast Asian Kitchen is opening the segment to a wider array of Asian cuisines making its opening quite timely.

It is not easy looking into a restaurant crystal ball, but studying up-and-comers is a good exercise to keep your brand and menu relevant and stay ahead of the curve. These chains mentioned here have fewer than 100 units...as of today. Make it a point to get out, try the food and observe the atmosphere, because these rising fast-casuals may be one of next year's fastest growing chains.

Food IQ Executive Chef Tom Smith lives the philosophy of "Before it's a great dish, it's a great idea", partnering and guiding his clients to strategic culinary concepts, executions and ideations.