Marketing

Pumpkin spice is back, but will COVID-19 hinder sales?

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September 9, 2020

While many traditional fall rituals like back-to-school shopping and football games have been altered this year by COVID-19, one fall tradition hasn't faltered — pumpkin spice latte limited-time offers.

Coffee and doughnut chains began rolling out their deals in August and although the pandemic didn't hinder the return of pumpkin spice lattes, it could impact sales as the U.S. restaurant industry continues to be challenged by mandated restrictions and safety protocols, as well as reluctance on the part of the consumer to visit, according to The NPD Group. Restaurant visits overall were down 14% in July, and visits to quick-service coffee and doughnut outlets — many of which offer pumpkin spice lattes — were down 23% and 13%, respectively.

"Pumpkin spice lattes are a harbinger of fall," Darren Seifer, NPD food and beverage industry analyst, said in a press release. "Consumers anticipate their availability and know the drinks are only around for a short period of time and this anticipation creates demand. With foodservice visits down overall, the success of this year's pumpkin spice latte offers remains to be seen."

Like many limited-time offers, pumpkin spice latte offers don't attract new customers, but instead appeal to existing customers who purchase often, sometimes three times more frequently than non-buyers. This has been consistent for the past four years, according to NPD's Checkout, which harvests restaurant and retail receipts from a panel of more than 130,000 consumers. Pumpkin spice latte limited time offers also help lift check size. For example, among the existing buyers of a major gourmet coffee chain, checks last September and October that included PSLs were $2.77 more than the average spend in previous months, NPD reported.

The perennial purchasers of pumpkin spice lattes tend to have higher incomes (61% have a household income of $75,000 and above), skew slightly more female (57%) than male, and 48% are 45 years and older. Sixty-five percent of pumpkin spice latte aficionados do not have children under 18 in the household, according to the Checkout analysis.