Operations

7% of restaurant guests drive up to 50% of order volume

Photo: Toast

May 27, 2026

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A mere 7% of a restaurant's guest base can drive up to half of its total order volume, according to "The Regulars Report 2026," a joint study released this week by restaurant technology platform Toast and reservation network Resy.

The report, which pairs first quarter 2026 transactional data with multiyear reservation metrics and consumer sentiment surveys, highlights the massive financial impact of cultivating "regular" diners in an increasingly competitive industry.

According to Toast platform data from Q1 2026, this small circle of multi-visit diners generates a disproportionate share of revenue. When guests transition into regulars, their behavior shifts dramatically, benefiting both a restaurant's predictable cash flow and its front-of-house staff.

The financial power of the familiar face

The report reveals that turning a casual customer into a regular directly influences check sizes and tipping etiquette. In an April 2026 survey of 1,500 U.S. adults, Toast found that 62% of diners maintain a mental shortlist of just two or three "home base" restaurants to avoid decision fatigue.

Once a restaurant secures a spot on that list, financial returns follow:

Higher spend: 34% of regulars surveyed report spending more per check because they feel comfortable ordering and trust the kitchen, making them 80% more likely to try new menu items.
Increased gratuity: 77% of respondents say they tip more generously at establishments where they are regulars. Specifically, 46% leave an additional 5% to 10%, and 37% leave an extra 10% to 15% or more above their standard tip.
Predictable booking: Resy data tracking completed reservations across major metro areas from 2023 through 2025 shows that regulars book 83% of their visits in advance. Conversely, 52% of non-regular visits are walk-ins.

"Higher retention can help with a predictable book, better labor management, and less reliance on the unpredictability of walk-ins," the report noted. Furthermore, more than half of all regular reservations are for parties of two, indicating that maximizing two-top efficiency is crucial for accommodating a restaurant's most valuable demographic.

Digital paths and the Recognition Gap

While excellent food remains the baseline requirement for 52% of diners, technology provides the infrastructure to keep them coming back. Toast Loyalty data from Q1 2026 indicates that moving a guest into a loyalty program can shift their return rate from a 7% baseline to nearly 30% — a fourfold increase.

However, the report cautions operators against relying solely on transactional point systems. Human recognition carries twice the weight of a points-based discount; 48% of surveyed guests say being remembered by staff is what makes them feel most valued, compared to just 22% who prioritize points.

Despite this preference, a notable "recognition gap" exists: only 30% of diners report always receiving that level of recognition at their favorite spots.

Tailoring rewards to the vibe

The study emphasizes that loyalty strategies must match the service model to prevent high dropout rates.

Data from a 90-day platform study ending in April 2026 showed that cashback rewards drove the highest retention rates (24% to 26%) at casual spots like pizzerias and cafes. In fine dining, however, transactional discounts underperform. Experience- or item-based rewards — such as a complimentary appetizer or dessert — drove a 20% retention rate in fine dining segments, compared to just 13% for cashback models.

Ultimately, the report warns that losing a regular is rarely a sudden event. Instead, it is a "slow fade" driven by minor, gradual regressions. According to the consumer survey, 43% of diners who abandoned a favorite spot cited a slow decline in food quality (31%), creeping price increases (22%), or a drop in service warmth (15%)