Food & Beverage
Straight up with a twist: A cocktail’s reality check
Gallup found drinking still hasn't returned to pre-pandemic levels — only 62% of adults drink now, down from 65% before COVID. Morning Consult says 59% kept at least one healthy habit from that time — usually drinking less or drinking more mindfully.
November 20, 2025 by Suzy Badaracco — President, Culinary Tides Inc
Setting
A sleek rooftop bar at closing time. City lights shimmer below. The last guests drift out, laughter fading into the hum of traffic.
A half-finished martini sits across from a poised business coach, laptop glowing faintly on the marble bar. Napkin notes and an empty garnish dish separate them.
Characters
Martini: suave, iconic and a little bitter. Once the life of every party, now wrestling with declining relevance.
Avery Cross: a calm, intuitive business coach who specializes in brand reinvention. Analytical but warm, using data the way others use intuition.
SCENE 1 – LAST CALL
MARTINI
(sighs)
I've been poured less lately. Even my Friday crowd — the regulars — are ordering sparkling botanicals.
AVERY
They haven't left you; they're redefining you. IWSR shows total alcohol volumes down 2% in the U.S., even as restaurant visits recovered. Nearly half of drinkers now say they're moderating—choosing better over more. And while full-strength sales slip, no- and low-alcohol options grew 7% last year.
MARTINI
So, reflection instead of rebellion?
AVERY
Exactly. Consumers aren't chasing the buzz anymore; they're chasing balance.
SCENE 2 – NEW RITUALS
AVERY
You're not being ignored — you're being reinterpreted. IWSR found total beverage-alcohol volumes slipped 1% last year, while no- and low-alcohol drinks grew 7%. No-alcohol beer was up 9%, spirits 6%. People aren't quitting; they're curating.
MARTINI
So wellness moved into my glass.
AVERY
Exactly. Morning Consult says nearly a third of younger adults — about 31% — now replace some drinking occasions with functional beverages that help them hydrate, relax, or focus. Another 54% of people cutting back say they're doing it for wellness or mental clarity.
MARTINI
So it's less about abstaining, more about intention.
AVERY
Right. IWSR reports 43% of U.S. drinkers now say they're moderating — drinking better, not more. It's what IWSR calls 'mindful consumption' — the rise of drinks that keep the ritual but skip the regret.
MARTINI
Guess that explains the zero-proof menu.
AVERY
And the waitlist for it.
SCENE 3 – THE PRICE OF THE POUR
MARTINI
Maybe it's not mindfulness — maybe it's money.
AVERY
Money plays its part. Circana 2024 found 71% of consumers have noticed higher alcohol prices, and about half say they're cutting back or trading down. Guests are stretching visits, sharing pours, or swapping a night out for take-home bottles or RTDs.
MARTINI
So even celebration got a budget cap.
AVERY
Right. Circana reports restaurant traffic holding steady but alcohol attach rates down 3-5%. RTD cocktails are up 8% in volume as drinking occasions shift home. People still want the flavor—they're just finding cheaper ways to get it.
MARTINI
Experience per dollar, not drink per hour.
AVERY
Exactly. Value isn't about price — it's about feeling like every sip was worth it.
SCENE 4 – HEALTH AS STATUS
AVERY
Health isn't a trend — it's an identity. Gallup found 53% of U.S. adults now see even moderate drinking as harmful, and Morning Consult says 54% of those cutting back do it for wellness or mental clarity. Wellness isn't about denial — it's empowerment.
MARTINI
I used to symbolize control — measured, composed.
AVERY
And you still can. IWSR 2025 shows the no- and low-alcohol category growing 7%, while total alcohol slipped 1%. No-alcohol beer rose 9%, spirits 6%. People still want craftsmanship—they're just choosing lighter expressions.
(leans in, thoughtful)
Commetric found low-alcohol drinks are talked about most in connection with social events — 43% of the time. They let people blend in without the buzz, which removes the pressure of standing out. YouGov reports young adults choosing low- and no-alcohol options jumped from 31% to 44% in just one year.
MARTINI
So it's not just about health — it's about harmony.
AVERY
Exactly. Many don't swap for a "low-alcohol version" of the same drink—they switch to beverages that are naturally lighter, ones that feel authentic to the moment. And taste seals the deal. Studies show the top driver of repeat purchase is when the flavor mimics the full-strength version. If the craft stays intact, moderation feels like refinement, not sacrifice.
MARTINI
(smiling)
Maybe that's the trick — keep my flavor, just change my tempo.
AVERY
Exactly. The ritual survives; the recipe evolves.
SCENE 5 – A NEW RIVAL RISING
(A faint herbal scent drifts in from the street.)
MARTINI
Is that cannabis?
AVERY
Your newest rival — and maybe your next collaborator. Morning Consult found 44% of adults in legal states use cannabis, and among 21–34-year-olds, about a third (34%) sometimes substitute it for alcohol. IWSR estimates cannabis already represents 6% of recreational beverage moments in legal markets.
MARTINI
Cheaper, no calories, and it doesn't call in sick the next day.
AVERY
Exactly. Culinary Tides foresight calls it a "parallel path." The future's in crossovers — hemp bitters, CBD spritzers, terpene cocktails. Not competition — collaboration.
SCENE 6 – POST-COVID RESET
(The skyline glows gold against the glass.)
MARTINI
I thought hard times made people drink more.
AVERY
They used to. But Gallup found drinking still hasn't returned to pre-pandemic levels — only 62% of adults drink now, down from 65% before COVID. Morning Consult says 59% kept at least one healthy habit from that time — usually drinking less or drinking more mindfully.
MARTINI
So stress no longer drives the pour?
AVERY
Exactly. IWSR shows drinkers shifting toward energy-restoring behaviors — exercise, functional drinks, better sleep. Culinary Tides' Post-COVID Behavioral Reset says balance replaced reflex. People aren't reaching for escape anymore; they're choosing experiences that keep them grounded.
MARTINI
Balance… I used to think that meant moderation.
AVERY
Now it means alignment — matching mood, meaning and occasion. A crafted cocktail still fits — it just has to fit the rhythm of life.
SCENE 7 – THE COMEBACK PLAN
(Only one candle remains. Avery folds the napkin into a compass.)
MARTINI
All this talk of balance—how do restaurants bring me back?
AVERY
By reminding guests what only you can do. The bars gaining share build menus around story, craft, and place.
MARTINI
(skeptical)
A moment? I used to be the moment.
AVERY
Then be it again — just smarter. Here are some pathways:
(She sketches circles on the napkin.)
Global Passage. Menus that tie drinks to place and story earn double-digit check gains, Circana says. A mezcal spritz that whispers Oaxaca, a yuzu martini that feels like Tokyo — each a passport in a glass.
Craft as Performance. The shake, the pour, the citrus mis t— that's theater. Circana found visible preparation ranks among the top five drivers of perceived premium value.
Memory Anchors. Nostalgia sells. A Manhattan with barrel-aged bitters, a Sidecar with bergamot peel — comfort meets craftsmanship. Culinary Tides calls nostalgia an emotional stabilizer.
Precision Pairings. Non-alcohol complements; alcohol transforms. IWSR links paired menus to double-digit check gains.
Emotionally Premium. Circana reports guests drink less often but spend 9% more per order when they do. One perfect cocktail — a pause worth paying for.
(Avery slides the folded napkin across the bar.)
AVERY
Place, performance, memory, pairing, pause. That's how restaurants turn moderation into momentum.
MARTINI
(smiles)
Guess I'm not out—I'm upgraded.
AVERY
Exactly — straight up, with a twist.
(They toast as the candle flickers out, city lights shimmering across the glass.)
Voice-Over Narrator:
Trend foresight isn't about tracking the past — it decodes the forces shaping what's next.
About Suzy Badaracco
