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Food & Beverage Forecasting: Resetting the Stage through Chaos

June 24, 2010 by Suzy Badaracco — President, Culinary Tides Inc

I had the interesting experience of having an invitation to my 8-year-old's sleepover party rejected by a mother who suggested we wait until next school year to see if the kids end up in the same homeroom and then “we can take it from there.” NEXT SCHOOL YEAR? IT’S JUNE! She probably freaked out because I figured out how to contact her despite her electronic invisibility. But that’s my job – Intelligence.

And just as you should know someone before diving into a relationship, you should also know your trends forecaster and what drives their predictions. In fact, a favorite litmus test of mine is this: if a forecaster tells you what the next hot thing is, ask them why. Why do they believe in it? And if they look at you like a deer in headlights or act insulted then you should run for the hills.

They should instead either be able to tell you the birth of the trend or tell you they will research it and get back to you. Then you at least know they understand how to find the birth. For without a clear understanding of the birth of a trend you have little hope of navigating it successfully or exiting appropriately.

Beyond the birth of a trend, there are indeed navigation and exit strategies to consider. The massive complexity behind forecasting the lifecycle of a trend and cross analyzing it to parallel and perpendicular events affecting that lifecycle can seem overwhelming to those not in the prediction business. But the trickiest part actually is not in the analysis, but in displaying and explaining the data in an uncomplicated way so the viewer can immediately grasp the concepts and implications. I do this using a combination of Chaos theory and other military analytic tools.

Ironically, since a huge amount of data can be displayed in a single image, it is often thought of as too simple or even unsupported. Let me give you an example. I just finished a deck of 14 slides for the National IFT conference in July. The slides are based on 1,100 individual research reports, clinical studies, surveys, corporate & government movements, etc. There are two points to consider with this last statement which helps to explain Chaos.

1) Chaos is based on massive amounts of data

2) All data included must be fact or research based (quantitative). It cannot include opinion, predictions, commentary, or qualitative data.

Although the mere mention of Chaos brings to mind – well, chaos, it is far more conservative than most predictive techniques because you are looking at the entire picture surrounding any single trend or event. Chaos is also fluid and takes into account that all trends are constantly in motion so it would be irresponsible to lend a prediction of say 12 – 18 months into the future and then walk away from it saying “good luck with that.” It is instead a constant vigil to keep a client safe 18 months into the future at all times. It is referred to as “streaming intelligence.”

So, not only do you want someone doing this work to be of a conservative nature, it is also best if they have no ego. A trends forecaster with no ego – impossible you say? Well, nothing will skew a prediction faster and more sever than a big ego. Instead, what is needed is quiet confidence to allow the patterns to emerge on their own – good, bad or indifferent. And beware a forecast that paints only a rosy picture as you may be blindsided by the thorns.

I lay this picture before you as a foundation for my future blogs as one must always start with understanding the origin of a thing before you can successfully navigate the journey it takes you on. I will be covering food and beverage trends and events colliding with those worlds. Their journeys will not always be smooth but no journey worth taking ever is.

So…who is up for a play date?