Operations

Coffee margins under pressure: Menu prices up 3.4%

Photo: Adobe Stock

January 13, 2026

Restaurant operators continued to adjust caffeine margins in late 2025, with coffee prices outrunning other menu categories in year-over-year growth, according to the latest Toast Menu Price Monitor.

The December 2025 data indicates that the median price for a regular cup of coffee rose to $3.61, a 3.4% increase over December 2024. Cold brew saw a more aggressive jump, climbing 4.3% annually to a median of $5.55.

While the industry has closely watched shifting international tariffs and trade policies, the report suggests these macro-economic factors have not yet fully impacted menus. Instead, current price levels likely reflect operators navigating the tail-end of high-cost bulk inventory purchased earlier in the year. On a month-over-month basis, regular coffee rose 0.6%, while cold brew stayed relatively stable with a 0.2% uptick.

Protein and alcohol trends

Beyond the beverage station, chicken wings saw the sharpest monthly spike of all monitored items. Driven by seasonal demand for football and holiday catering, wing prices rose 0.8% in December to a median of $13.90. Despite the monthly jump, the category remains one of the more stable year-over-year investments for operators, up only 1.8% since late 2024.

Other key menu benchmarks for December include:

• Burgers: The median price reached $14.61, up 2.9% year-over-year and 0.3% since November.
• Burritos: Prices rose 3.2% annually to a median of $13.49, with a 0.4% monthly increase.
• Beer: While prices are up 2.2% over last December to a median of $6.50, the category remained flat compared to November 2025, providing a rare moment of price stability for bar programs.

Operator outlook

The data suggests that while inflation is cooling across some commodities, the "daily habit" items like coffee and burritos continue to allow for modest price flexibility. For fast casual operators, the challenge remains balancing these incremental hikes against consumer value perceptions as they head into the first quarter of 2026, according to the report.

About the Toast Menu Price Monitor: The Toast Menu Price Monitor tracks median prices for popular menu items across the Toast platform, providing restaurant operators with benchmarks to evaluate pricing strategies and inflationary trends.