Operations

As states return to dine-in, slight improvement noted in restaurant sales

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May 4, 2020

U.S. restaurant chain transactions showed improvement for the second week in a row in the week ending April 26 with total industry customer transactions down 32% compared to a 36% decline the prior week, according to The NPD Group. QSR transactions were down 30% that week, versus last year, while there was a slight (1 %) improvement in sales week over week at full-service restaurants, though they were still down 71%.

NPD uses its CREST Performance Alerts for the data, which provides chain-specific transactions and share trends for 70 QSR, fast casual, midscale and casual dining chains. 

"Government relief payments and overall improvement in consumer spending most likely contributed to the easing of transaction declines," David Portalatin, NPD food industry adviser, said in the release.

Portalatin said it's reasonable to anticipate that the trend will continue for the data for the week that ended May 1, when it becomes available since some states are reopening restaurants for dine-in service, including Georgia's 20,000 restaurants on April 27 and several other states May 1-3, including 60,000 Texas restaurants.  

Over the next two weeks, there are over 300,000 restaurants that may potentially reopen for on-premise dining.  These openings will improve industry volume, but won't return it to full capacity, NPD said in the release. In Texas, for example, reopening comes with strict social distancing guidelines, and dining rooms may not exceed 25% of their standard occupancy. 

"As states and localities reopen, many restaurants are ready to open on the first day, while others need more time to prepare. Still unknown is the number of restaurants that may never reopen," Portalatin said.  "Other considerations are that many consumers may be cautious about returning to dining rooms, and a significant percentage of the population would remain in quarantine even if restrictions were lifted."