Operations

Winner Winner: Chicken for dinner — and lunch and breakfast

Chicken concepts were the first to break into positive sales territory in mid-April, and their traffic has been trending even YOY at lunch and dinner since the end of April. Customers are so enthralled with chicken that it's even outperforming at breakfast.

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July 1, 2020 by Richard Delvallee

We've been observing the pandemic's impact on the industry since mid-March, and after pouring through data trends from nearly 100,000 locations in 40 countries — of which the majority are limited-service — one thing is clear: Chicken is what's for dinner — and lunch and even breakfast. Whether it is the overwhelmingly positive YOY sales at chicken-only concepts or the rise in popularity of chicken items on a more varied menu, chicken has emerged as a clear winner during the global pandemic — for consumers, brands and restaurants.

Since publishing our first impact report, chicken concepts have overwhelmingly led other categories we follow (breakfast, burgers, ethnic and other). Chicken concepts were the first to break into positive sales territory in mid-April, and their traffic has been trending even YOY at lunch and dinner since the end of April. That upswing compares to traffic declines between 20-30% YOY in burgers, ethnic and other categories over the same period.

Oddly enough, customers are so enthralled with chicken that the category even outperforms at breakfast — with traffic at negative 10% YOY and sales increases of between 10-15% YOY. This trend compares to breakfast concepts where traffic and sales are still in negative territory. Because few of the concepts we track offer breakfast, this positive trend likely reflects a shift in customer habits. With the morning commute all but gone, breakfast is morphing into an early lunch.

Why is chicken winning?
One explanation is a trend we see across every industry segment: The pandemic response has quickly accelerated trends already in motion.

Four of the nation's top 10 fastest-growing chains are chicken concepts, based on 2019 sales, partially due to innovation started last summer. As QSRWeb reported June 5, when major players went head to head in a fried-chicken sandwich popularity contest last August, customers flocked to the QSRs to get a bite of the hype. That momentum continued, according to the article, with brands reporting visits up more than 60% in February 2020.

Then the pandemic hit — but chicken held its own.

My colleague and RMS VP Dora Furman says "holding its own" is one reason chicken has performed so well. "Chicken is portable and easily reheated," said Furman. "It can handle the drive between a restaurant and home and performs well in the microwave. For families right now, this is crucial."

Another colleague, RMS VP Alex Messeder, added: "Everyone loves chicken. It's a universal meat."

Chicken is also one of the few dishes that qualify in consumers' minds as both comfort food and a healthier option. And both, it seems, are of great importance during these unprecedented times.

When consumers started heading back to restaurants, nutrition and health gained top priority. According to our April survey of more than 1,800 restaurant customers, nutrition (calories, carbs and fats) and access to "fresh/healthy foods" were among the top three biggest food concerns, along with safety and hygiene.

"You could debate the healthfulness of some fried chicken offerings, but the bottom line is customers feel good when they choose chicken," said Furman. "This translates into visits to chicken concepts — several times a week for some customers."

What's next?

Pre-pandemic, chicken sandwiches at non-chicken concepts were on the menu to manage the veto vote. This mindset began to change last summer. Now, with the incredible performance of chicken-only concepts during the pandemic, many brands are feeling the pressure to innovate by reimagining their current offering or adding new items.

So far, it seems to be working. For example, a brand we follow promoted its already-on-the-menu chicken tenders and saw a big jump in the larger size — perfect for families. And the average check size increased when the promotion created a meal occasion instead of just a snack.

The bottom line is this: Chicken appears to be a shelter in the storm, but brands need to think through menu changes carefully during the best of times, and particularly now.

"Budget cuts are forcing many to play it safe, and simplified menus allow for faster delivery/drive-thru times. It's a delicate balance," Messeder said. "But we are finding that customers are very forgiving right now, recognizing that everything has changed."

Maybe it's time to jump into the coop.