Food & Beverage

Starbucks' pumpkin spice latte still driving traffic

Starbucks' fall launch doesn't just boost its own traffic; it sets the benchmark for the entire industry.

Photo: Starbucks

September 23, 2025 by R.J. Hottovy — Head of Analytical Research, Placer.ai

Starbucks launched its latest fall menu on Aug. 26 2025, which included the fan-favorite Pumpkin Spice Latte (PSL). How did the return of the anticipated beverage impact visits this year? We dove into the data to find out.

The fall menu launch and PSL return drove significant visit spikes to Starbucks, as shown in the chart below. And traffic on this year's PSL launch was nearly identical to 2024 levels, highlighting the remarkable consistency of the seasonal offering that has now become a cultural staple. The ability of the PSL to drive traffic at scale — even after two decades — underscores its unique role in Starbucks' playbook.

Where is the Pumpkin Spice Latte most popular?

The map below plots the increase in Starbucks visits on the launch of the fall menu compared to each state's pre-fall menu launch daily average. The Mountain region emerged as this year's PSL epicenter: Utah led the nation with a traffic surge of over 40% above its daily average, with neighboring states like Colorado, Idaho, and Nevada also showing exceptional gains. The Midwest and Appalachia, including West Virginia and Kentucky, followed with their own impressive double-digit increases.

By contrast, increases were more muted in the Northeast and Southeast, with single-digit visit growth in Louisiana, Mississippi, Georgia, New York, Vermont and New Hampshire. Together, these patterns reveal both the universal draw of Starbucks' seasonal offerings and the regional nuances that shape consumer response.

While competitors like Dunkin' and Dutch Bros. also leverage seasonal menus to attract customers, their launch-day boosts don't match the scale of the PSL phenomenon, as shown in the chart below. Starbucks has successfully transformed a menu update into a highly anticipated cultural moment that competitors struggle to replicate.

This data suggests that Starbucks' fall launch doesn't just boost its own traffic; it sets the benchmark for the entire industry. The brand's ability to blend product innovation with cultural relevance reinforces its position as the undisputed leader in the seasonal beverage market.

The data from the 2025 fall menu launch suggests that the Pumpkin Spice Latte is far more than a seasonal beverage; it is one of Starbucks' most reliable and defensible strategic assets. The popular LTO provides a predictable traffic and revenue anchor, transforming the fall menu and the PSL at its center into a reliable financial instrument that widens the company's competitive advantage.

Ultimately, the enduring success of the PSL highlights Starbucks' mastery in transforming a product into a cultural tradition, proving that the most powerful driver of consumer behavior isn't just the product itself, but the anticipation and ritual built around it.

About R.J. Hottovy

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R.J. Hottovy, CFA has covered the restaurant, retail, and e-commerce sectors for 20 years as an equity analyst and strategist for Morningstar, William Blair & Co., and Deutsche Bank. R.J. also brings a wealth of experience with early-stage investments as a committee member for the IrishAngels / Vitalize venture capital group. Over the past three years, he advised over 50 food service companies on more than $200 million in early-stage capital raises and M&A transactions.

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