I struggle with choosing the best metaphor to describe the difference between consumer behaviors during a good economy vs. a bad economy vs. a recovering economy. Although all comparisons conjure succinct images, none are flattering. There is an expansion and contraction of behavior that is difficult to describe.

What consumers have been exhibiting in the recent past was contracting behavior due to the war involvement and compounded by the economic crisis. They lock down emotionally, exhibit Clanning behavior (focusing time and effort on like minded individuals and family), cut out frivolity, simplify their life, turn to comfort foods and uncomplicated beverages. Their behavior translated in 2008 and into 2009 into a surge in comfort food, drop in organic purchases and restaurant visits, increased interest in private label, and the terms frugality, distrust, trading down, brown bagging, control, and fear played often in the media. Chefs were put on pedestals and touted as "rock stars" and consumers worshiped them through TV and in store and conference appearances.

When 2010 hit there was a shift towards recovery. With that shift we began to see calm, cool, confidence emerging as food moved from:

• Intimidating to approachable
• Mysterious to adventurous
• Fearful to courageous
• Comfort to reassurance
• Put on a pedestal to invited into the home

The three key things which cause a shift in emotional and behavioral change are increased time, increased income, and decreased fear. When this marriage occurs it translates to behavior seen in the latter half of 2010 and included the following: convenience and value both trumping budget, return to restaurants, brands rebounding, coupon use decreasing, organic rebounding, sustainable spending up, trade off replacing trade down, desserts moving back into the spotlight, exotic and experimental trumping comfort and the return of luxury and indulgence.

And where are we headed in 2011? As recovery continues in 2011 we will begin to see adventure, courage, optimism, and playfulness emerging as food moves from:

• Approachable to adventurous
• Mysterious to playful
• Fearful to courageous
• Comfort to experimental
• Clanning to individualistic

While the economy of course is still a stressor in 2011, there is now both spending and saving behavior acknowledged instead of just saving. Dining out is up and luxury, optimism, vitality, and frugality fatigue are among the new terms describing consumers and their behavior. While trade off remains, now cost and value can coexist and value means more than price. This opens up the field for appetizers, snack, and small portions to fill this need on the menu. Brands too equate to value and private label is going to have to come up with something beyond chasing the brand names. Sustainability, like the economic issues, will surface on many fronts in 2011. There is a blurring now between sustainability and health making them more interlinked than they were in recent years.

Overall the upcoming trends indicate that consumers and food are moving away from comfort and towards experimentation. There is strong evidence that consumers are moving out of the economic crisis both emotionally and behaviorally. More extreme behaviors and activities; a sense of risk taking, playfulness, courage, vulnerability, and live life to the fullest actions have emerged again in food and flavor, travel, beverage, and consumer survey and behavioral research.

While comfort foods are waning, it should be understood that authenticity is still key and so this is not the time to "Americanize" food. Bring foods in from abroad in their truest form and represent them accurately on the plate. While consumers are letting go of their blanket of fear, be aware that they still have a few fingers touching the blanket or at least have it in their line of sight. This is not the year to plunge ahead with molecular gastronomy or create foods without reference to anything in their ken.

Notice the "blanket of fear" metaphor? Love it, hate it, it's the best I could come up with but I will bet you have a solid visual now, don't you? And if you are going to the RCA this week and see me, please stop and say hello and by all means tell me if you can trump my metaphor!