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Are there too many restaurants?

As we start 2011, it would appear that we are looking at another year of contraction in terms of the number of restaurants in the United States. The latest prognostication comes from an analyst at Barclays Capital, and is echoed by other industry gurus. The prediction for 2011: approximately a 1% reduction in locations. Given the trend that has developed for modest annual contraction in the industry, one might wonder...are there too many restaurants?

Let's take a look at the numbers. With a domestic population of about 310 million people, if there was an equal distribution of restaurants across the land, there would be one restaurant for approximately every 325 people. Our industry generated 67 billion occasions in 2010...about 216 visits per person, per year (of course, different age groups have substantially higher and lower rates of restaurant usage...but hang with me here!). If every restaurant had an equal share, that's 70,200 occasions per restaurant per year. That's 192 per day.

So, if restaurant usage were fixed at today's level, there is clearly plenty of capacity to satisfy the public's demand for eating out. When it comes to opening a new restaurant, the pessimist in the room would say "Why bother! Stealing share is too tough." "Even if I get my equal share, I can't turn a profit with only 192 customers a day." Woe is me...the sky is falling.

But consider this: With a population of 310 million, if everyone gobbled down three square meals a day, there are 339 billion meals consumed per year (again, hang with me on the general assumption). So as it stands, the restaurant industry is only serving 20% of those meals.

Some within the industry look at the total number of restaurant occasions as a fixed sum; they think we are strictly in a share battle for those 67 billion occasions. But I would argue that with the industry capturing only one out of five meal occasions, there is ample room for growth.

The challenge for our industry is that, collectively, we need to be better. We have to work harder to satisfy our guests. We have to treat them like gold. We need to serve them higher quality food than they have ever received before. We need to innovate. We need to offer flavors, recipes, and products that they cannot find in grocery stores, nor replicate at home, at a price that is viewed as a solid value for their dollar. We have to provide a great experience. If more restaurants aspired to and achieved excellence, we would increase our share of those 339 billion meals. Any restaurant that rises to a level of excellence is helping the cause of the industry. Many of my peers in the fast-casual segment are helping lead the way in this regard, and should be proud of the contribution they are making toward the betterment of our industry.

So, are there too many restaurants? Yes, there are. There just aren't enough great restaurants.

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  • Mark Moreno
    about 16 months ago
    Very good objective perspective on an incredibly subjective industry! And how right you are, there just aren't enough great restaurants! In every industry only the strong survive and being strong requires constantly "Sharpening the Saw" and reading your stuff is a great place to start.
  • Paul Dickison
    about 16 months ago
    Great comments regarding the category. Although not a marketer in this category, it seems as though many have tried to differentiate their business through menu offerings alone with less emphasis of creating a truly differentiated consumer experience. Similarly, it seems like the focus is on transactions rather than achieving a high level of consumer engagement. All of these areas shape the perception of customers. I suspect that frequency of purchase and brand loyalty would improve if these areas received similar focus. Sadly, I can only think of 1 or 2 examples or QSRs that place emphasis here.
  • cliff courtney
    about 16 months ago
    Great post. For starters, lets hope Walmart doesn’t crack the code on a Great Value in-store eatery, that's 130MM people walking by each week: Good AND bigger footprint rolled into one. (No joke, check out the number of families heading to IKEA for diner).

    Three squares a day… what a concept! But brings to mind an interesting question as to what constitutes a meal and restaurant for that matter. Starbucks is the third place serving the "4th meal", certainly, and by virtue of their increased food business, their re-classification can slot them right into fast casual.

    I believe this blurring of industry designations will continue, with the leaner, more flexible options attracting more attention for new players, leaving the casual dining options left to the big four.

    Your larger point about there not being enough good restaurants is dead on. No matter how many chains and one-offs there are, the best will continue to rise. As Chipotle readies their Asian concept launch, for instance, do we have any doubt that their pitch perfect model of a tightly vertical menu, focus on freshness, decor that exceeds expectations, innovative flavors, etc. – can support any one of a dozen food types? No matter how many restaurants pop up.

    Further, in a world of too many anything, the value equation becomes even more important in decision making: Cheaper, faster, even more convenient are no longer differentiators and instead are claimed by dozens upon dozens of players, while the x-factor becomes, that “what you get” for your money becomes more important than ever. And in effect, that great operator, the winning franchisee, the chain with a truly great value proposition welcomes the competition. “Bring it on,” they say… “In a world of clones, I am different.”
  • sam farahani
    about 15 months ago
    Yes there are. Too many fast foods and copy cats. Too many single-purpose fast food concepts: pizza, burger, pasta, fried chicken, subs, salad, Mexican, Asian, Italian, etc. A very saturated and segmented single-purpose fast food ideas or markets. As Don Fox correctly pointing, there is need for more great restaurants. So what is a great restaurant or idea? Certainly Panera Bread, or Corner Bakery Café, Chipotle, Five Guys, In-N-Out, and other similar ideas and or their current or future copy cats of these guys can be considered “great restaurant” ideas. But all these new “great restaurants,” or good old boys great fast food restaurant ideas, McDonald, Burger King, KFC, etc., and or the their past, current, or future copycat types, have significant design flaws: they cater to a single segment of the market and concentrate on single or a few limited types of food ideas and segments of the public. At Panera Bread, most of the customer’s age ranges between 30-60, and they eat a lot of apparently healthy breads and salads. At Chipotle, it is 15-30 age, and all they eat is apparently healthy Mexican burritos. At Five Guys or In-N-Out it is all about so called fresh burgers and fries and that is all. At McDonald’s or Burger King it is the 5-40 crowd and a lot of frozen and cheap priced burgers and fries, and a lot of chemically manufactured or enhanced or manipulated space-age ingredients. At Domino’s, it is all about a cheap and delivered and plastic pizza with guaranteed upset stomach. At Taco Bell it is the 10-40 crowds consuming some small pieces of allegedly Mexican foods outside the bun with super industrialized space-age ingredients. At KFC it is all about drug-addict or recently rehabbed fried chicken that continues to be tasty and popular indeed. These fast food ideas are typically single purpose, and cater to certain type of market, the economy of scales, and have significant menu and or type of food limitation flaws. One may come up with freshly made great pizza sauces and pizza shapes and out-compete Domino’s, Pizza Hut, and others but even such next great idea will inherently be flawed. Just look at In-N-Out or Five Guys. Certainly they are giving the good old burger boys a run for their burgers. No wonder these old burger boys must go to China or other countries to find business to sustain their local American brands. There will come a time whereas these old burger boys will start contracting increasingly, if it has not started already. But how far the Five Guys is going to go. How much burgers can repeat customers eat. Ok where is the next great restaurant idea. It is right in your own kitchen and the internet. Imagine converting homemade variety foods into fast foods, healthy or conventional, however without space age ingredients or drug-addict meats. If your wife or mom makes different types of food every week, why not copying that idea into a fast food. Here is a clue, rather in part, as to my next great idea fantasies. There was a time where Asian food meant just Chinese fast food with a lot of MSG or pseudo-MSGs. There are a lot of Chinese, single purpose, i.e., just Chinese food, restaurants around and their menu is many pages long. Now a day you see a lot of Asian, but multi-Asian foods: they serve Chinese, Japanese, and Thai, etc., under the same roof and recently the so called healthy too. Pay attention to Chipotle. Started out as a Mexican burrito, i.e., single purpose, Mexican burrito, and today they do not know what to do with their stores and fixed costs and resources and time. They had a great, simple, economy of scale type of idea that allowed them to expand dramatically. Long live the idea creator for the Chipotle. However they have reached the end or near the end. How many more Chipotle stores can they open? They are aware there are not enough locations suited to their needs that they can find to open more Chipotle stores. Or should they perhaps expand to overseas markets to sustain growth if they could at all. After all how much burritos can one eat every week? They are bored. They will continue their success, rather very slow now, and will also be remembered as an upgraded fast Mexican food. Today, they are thinking to apply their ideas to Asian foods, because they do not know what else to do with the Chipotle or their time and resources. Again Chipotle was and is a great idea but with limited purpose. I call it a great idea but with inherent design flaws. However they are also shooting themselves in the leg with their Asian idea. They will compete with Chipotle. They are creating their own antithesis. Hopefully they will not open their Asian idea next or very close to the Chipotles. Definitely there is more to Asian food than to Chipotle’s burritos. We live in an ever changing world. The borders between national foods and markets are increasingly thin and fast changing. Our American fast food chains and restaurant entrepreneurs need to step outside their Americanized fast food ideas. They need to create ideas that are just like our internet. Just look at the social media and how fast it is changing our life styles and ideas and what we eat. What we need is a fast food concept, like democracy, and or internet, that need not be stagnant and boring, but multi-purpose, evolving, revolutionary, creative, objective, and world designed. The next great fast food idea is already here. It is our world culture and world foods, flavors, spices, aromas, etc. It is not just about burgers, fries, breads, pastas, pizzas, or burritos, or Asian, Italian, or Mexican, or this or that. It is about all of them. So can you create a fast food concept that has less design flaws and caters to a world culture? The next great restaurant fast food idea is like a jukebox, you drop a quarter and it can play any music from any artist, from any culture. Next great food idea must cater to all Americans with healthy and indulgent desires, and the entire world and must have significant variety, and must be fast, fresh, good tasting, reasonable, and natural and hopefully without drugs and super space age ingredients.
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Don Fox
Don Fox has 30+ years experience in the restaurant industry. He joined Firehouse Subs in 2003 as director of Franchise Compliance, and was promoted to the position of CEO in 2009.
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