The spiders in my back yard suffer from over inflated egos and exaggerated senses of self importance. Lack of ambition is something these mavericks will never be accused of and I will tell you why. There is a 5-foot-wide path separating the edge of my deck from the retaining wall for the upper garden. The spiders’ mission appears to be to see how quickly they can erect webs stretching this span. I discovered their talent one evening a split second before flailing and spinning around the garden whilst squeaking and wildly brushing myself after having blindly walked straight through one of these monster webs. Who EXACTLY are they trying to catch? For if the webs were to scale - then their “dinner guests” would surely be the family dog.

However, by casting such enormous webs they leave themselves more vulnerable to failure. Like a house of cards these webs may be admired more for their ingenuity than for their true functionality.

Trends which cast too wide a net inevitably capture an unintended audience who at some point will abandon it. The trend then collapses back on itself and risks crashing, rendering it powerless. If the trend has true efficacy however it may simply be downsized and redirected to its intended audience where it can thrive in miniature.

Gluten free is on this path.

While I refer to the gluten free trend as a house of cards, The Celiac Sprue Association calls it “the mushroom effect” and is also expecting it to collapse. For they, and other groups, understand it is a medically indicated diet. It does not help you lose weight, regulate blood sugar, improve energy levels, or delay onset of Alzheimer’s. It is for sufferers of Celiac Sprue – that’s it. Going on a gluten free diet without medical need is like going on a Diabetic diet without having Diabetes. Would you stop eating peanuts because a friend of yours had a peanut allergy? Of course not, yet this is exactly what consumers are doing with the gluten free diet.

Hartman has unscrambled the groups of consumers unnecessarily following this diet – most of whom are expected to abandon it. Datamonitor recently reported the gluten free trend will have short term gains. Experts from the Mayo Clinic and the Gluten Intolerance Group of North America agreed this diet is not for the general population. So why the news that it may redirect is shocking to some - is shocking in itself.

As a registered dietitian myself, here are my real concerns:

1.  
   1. People are self medicating without actually getting tested for Celiac Sprue.
   2. Without a diagnosis there is no way to tell if the diets effects are real or perceived.
   3. Without a diagnosis there may be other family members afflicted but unaware.
   4. Parents are putting their children on the diet without a medical diagnosis.
   5. Celiac Sprue is not a disease reported to the CDC — in other words — it isn’t tracked so actual numbers don’t exist. What is known is that of the 1% of the population suspected of having Celiac Sprue in the States, only about 30% have a genetic predisposition so only 1/3 of the 1% will actually materialize the disease.

My predictions for this trend are:

1.  
   1. It will downsize and redirect toward the intended audience.
   2. Food companies participating in this trend will be thinned, leaving a few dedicated rockstars backed by good research departments and alliances with one or more of the Celiac groups.
   3. The product pipelines will be thinned, leaving the best tasting, nutritionally balanced, and truly gluten free products.
   4. Consumer groups, university and medical experts will be the forces behind predictions #1-3.

It is never a bad thing when a disease state garners attention. It generates support for new research, new products are brought to market for that population, and hopefully misinformation is cast aside leaving the general population with a better understanding of the condition and — hopefully — a bit of compassion for the sufferers. I hope for a redirect and not an outright crash as that would be devastating to those desperately in need of these products to manage their health, their diets, and their lives.

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