CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- The late-summer bump in gasoline prices looks to take a bite out of the profits of many roadside-restaurant operators. Fuel costs already have hit the shares of chains like Applebee's (APPB: news, chart, profile) , which cut its outlook for sales and profit late Tuesday, as well as Cracker Barrel (CBRL: news, chart, profile) , the subject of at least one downgrade Wednesday morning.
The downward pressure seemed to come from twin worries that higher prices at the pump will cut into household dining-out budgets and that fewer casual trips will stunt the drop-in traffic crucial to the chains' top- and bottom-line results.
Applebee's ended down 7% at $22.37, while Cracker Barrel bled 5% to $39.19. Bob Evans (BOBE: news, chart, profile) , with its near-ubiquitous presence on interstate off-ramps in states like Ohio, gave up 3.8% to $24.92.
After the bell Tuesday, Applebee's said that system-wide same-store sales for August increased 1.3%, but fell 1.5% at company-owned outlets. Guest traffic was off 4% to 5%.
It also said that it expects same-store sales for the rest of the year to be in a range of down 3% to up 1% for company restaurants.
In separate notes to investors, Piper Jaffrey's Peter Oakes pulled the trigger on both Applebee's and Cracker Barrel, downgrading them to market perform from outperform.
At Applebee's, he wrote, the "core customer tends to skew slightly lower in household income, producing a more hand-to-mouth behavior in lifestyle. (Think Wal-Mart (WMT: news, chart, profile) versus Target (TGT: news, chart, profile) .)"
So, "with gas prices continuing to surge, [that] customer is cutting back," Oakes said. "Weekday lunch continues to be a poor performer, suggesting the consumer is tightening the belt and eating elsewhere," trading down to fast-food or fast-casual options.
Cracker Barrel doesn't exactly attract the carriage trade, either, according to Oakes, who indicated that the rating cut also was due to "guilt by association."
With "gas prices hitting new highs on a daily basis, pushing the [year-over-year] increase to a level that historically has prompted meaningful consumer pullback, we view the combination of Cracker Barrel's interstate concentration and lower-end customer demographic as increasingly vulnerable to the current energy-induced squeeze."
The company has long tried to make the case against such a direct correlation between its sales and the price of gas, but "the magnitude of the recent price surge is hard to sidestep."
After all, the analyst pointed out, about 87% of Cracker Barrel's stores are located along interstate highways.
William Spain is a reporter for MarketWatch in Chicago.
